Bitcoin Tumbles Below $96,200 Amidst Federal Reserve Hawkishness and Bearish Technical Signals

As of November 15, 2025, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has dipped to $96,183, reflecting a 0.38% decrease compared to its previous closing price. This decline is symptomatic of a broader market correction, given that the asset has shed approximately 24% of its value since its peak in early October, when prices exceeded $126,000. This downward pressure aligns with a palpable shift in investor sentiment, characterized by a flight of capital away from riskier assets. Furthermore, the tightening rhetoric from monetary policymakers at the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) regarding any further policy easing has exacerbated the situation.

Market expectations surrounding a potential Fed rate cut in December have undergone a dramatic revision. Earlier forecasts had placed the likelihood of such a move as high as 90%; however, recent data indicates this probability has plummeted significantly, now resting around the 40% to 50% range. Macroeconomic factors, particularly the stance adopted by the Federal Reserve, have emerged as the dominant influence on the cryptocurrency market, underscoring Bitcoin's increasing correlation with traditional risk assets like equities. The lack of risk appetite on Wall Street, where the S&P 500 index has exhibited significant volatility, directly translates into downward pressure on digital assets. This precarious situation was compounded following a prolonged U.S. government shutdown, which compelled Fed officials to adopt a more cautious, wait-and-see approach ahead of crucial economic data releases.

The Federal Reserve’s policy pivot served as a catalyst, driving BTC below the critical psychological threshold of $100,000. This breach triggered a cascade of liquidations totaling over $600 million in leveraged positions within a short timeframe. Technical analysis confirms the strengthening bearish momentum: Bitcoin is rapidly approaching the formation of a “Death Cross” on the daily chart, a bearish signal occurring when the 50-day Moving Average (MA) drops below the 200-day MA. Further illustrating the market's weakness, Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently pegged at 31.33, nearing the oversold territory. The widely followed Fear & Greed Index has also plunged to a reading of 10, signaling “extreme fear” among participants.

Despite these alarming short-term technical warnings, long-term holders are demonstrating remarkable resilience. The supply of BTC held on exchanges has reached an historic low, suggesting that investors are moving assets into cold storage for extended holding periods. Providing a clear example of institutional confidence, MicroStrategy bolstered its reserves on November 10, 2025, by acquiring an additional 487 BTC. This purchase brings their total holdings to approximately 641,692 BTC, maintaining their commitment to the asset by not selling a single coin throughout 2025. Analysts offer a guarded recovery projection, suggesting Bitcoin could potentially rebound to approximately $114,022 by December 9, 2025.

The historical context highlights the asset’s exceptional growth trajectory: between 2015 and 2025, Bitcoin recorded an astonishing increase of almost 27,500%. However, the current period of intense volatility, magnified by prevailing macroeconomic uncertainty, is forcing investors to recalibrate their strategies. A noticeable shift in interest is occurring toward more structured blockchain systems that offer verifiable outcomes. The overarching picture as of November 15, 2025, is one of a market locked in a phase of consolidation and extreme caution, where immediate technical signals of weakness stand in stark contrast to the unwavering conviction held by long-term institutional players.