NEW: Nobel Peace Prize officials have launched an investigation after bets for Maria Corina Machado to win spiked on Polymarket hours before she was announced. "It seems we have been prey to a criminal actor who wants to earn money on our information," they announced. Machado's
诺贝尔和平奖泄密疑云：预测市场上的金融博弈与调查行动
编辑者： Uliana S.
委内瑞拉反对派领袖玛丽亚·科里娜·马查多因其在推动民主权利和实现和平过渡方面的坚定工作而荣获诺贝尔和平奖。然而，这一崇高荣誉的宣布，却被去中心化预测市场Polymarket上空前的交易激增事件蒙上了一层阴影。这起事件暴露了评选系统中的脆弱性，即对经济利益的追逐与这项享有盛誉的奖项的神圣性产生了激烈冲突。
在官方公布结果的前夕，包括“6741”、“GayPride”和“dirtycup”在内的多个平台账户进行了大额押注，精准地预测了最终的获奖人选。这些交易的利润相当可观，从30,000美元到超过85,000美元不等。尤其引人注目的是，在宣布前夜的周五晚上，马查多在Polymarket上的获奖概率在不到两个小时内，从微不足道的3.75%飙升至惊人的72.8%。
挪威诺贝尔研究所所长克里斯蒂安·伯格·哈普维肯证实，他们正以最严肃的态度对待这一局面。他指出，这强烈暗示了外部因素的干预，其动机纯粹是为了金融牟利，很可能涉及机密信息的泄露。哈普维肯认为，此事件的严重程度已超越了大约十五年前发生的类似事件。鉴于Polymarket在一个缺乏严格监管的离岸区域运作，且不对内幕交易施加限制，这使得围绕此类金融工具的伦理争议更加尖锐。挪威当局已启动了彻底的调查，旨在查明潜在的泄密源头，并强化围绕遴选过程的保密协议。
尽管发生了这场金融风波，诺贝尔委员会最终还是在10月6日批准了授奖决定，并在奥斯陆新闻发布会结束几分钟后通知了马查多。值得一提的是，据报道，美国前总统唐纳德·特朗普亲自联系了马查多，向她表示祝贺。预测市场上的这种反常波动，有力地表明了外部预期和传言如何扭曲重大事件的认知。专家们强调，预测市场技术本身并非问题的根源；相反，它暴露了人类试图从掌握内部信息中牟利的本性。最终，诺贝尔研究所面临的挑战是向公众证明，奖项的真正价值依然完好无损，它完全由一个封闭的、内部的流程所决定，不受任何外部影响和投机行为的干扰。
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来源
Daily Mail Online
Venezuela’s opposition leader María Corina Machado wins 2025 Nobel Peace Prize
Global: Nobel Peace Prize honours María Corina Machado and the pro-democracy movement in Venezuela
AS/COA Congratulates María Corina Machado on Winning the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize
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