Recent research conducted by an international team led by Dr. Magdalena Niedziałkowska from the Mammal Research Institute in Białowieża reveals significant findings regarding the distribution of moose (Alces alces) in Eurasia over the last 50,000 years. The study, published in the journal Science of the Total Environment, indicates that July temperature is the most critical climatic factor affecting moose distribution.
The researchers analyzed environmental conditions across 655 locations where moose were present from the late Pleistocene to the present. They discovered that in over 90% of these locations, the average temperature in the warmest month did not exceed 19°C. This temperature threshold appears to be vital for the species' habitat preference.
Furthermore, the study highlights notable differences between European and Asian moose populations. European moose tend to inhabit regions with milder climates and higher productivity, often favoring forested areas compared to their Asian counterparts. These findings are supported by genetic and morphological differences previously documented between the two groups.
The research also identified areas in Eurasia where moose survived during the Last Glacial Maximum. As the climate warmed during the Holocene, moose rapidly recolonized vast areas of Europe and Asia, particularly in northern regions. However, unlike other mammals, moose went extinct in their southern glacial refuges.
Over the past few thousand years, moose have disappeared from western Europe, now primarily found in northern, central, and eastern parts of the continent. The study indicates that the decline of moose populations in western Europe is more closely linked to habitat destruction and human activity than to climatic changes.
Interestingly, despite unfavorable environmental conditions in southern Europe, the total area where moose could potentially thrive has increased since the early Holocene. The correlation between decreasing moose populations and shrinking forest areas suggests that human-induced landscape changes play a significant role in the species' survival.
Currently, moose populations are recovering in Poland, attributed to a hunting moratorium established in 2001. However, the future of moose recolonization in western Europe remains uncertain, particularly with ongoing habitat fragmentation and climate change. The study emphasizes the need for further investigation into how biotic factors, such as pathogens and parasites, may limit moose populations as global temperatures rise.