The Florida scrub-jay, a species endemic to Florida, is facing significant population declines attributed to climate change. According to John W. Fitzpatrick, emeritus director of the Cornell Lab of Ornithology, the scrub-jay population has decreased markedly since research began in 1969, primarily due to habitat loss from residential development.
Recent studies published in the journal Ornithological Advances indicate that scrub-jays are nesting a week earlier than in 1981. Although earlier breeding typically benefits bird populations, the number of fledglings has dropped by 25% since 1981.
Researchers hypothesize that warmer temperatures are increasing predation risks from snakes during the longer spring season. Fitzpatrick noted that scrub-jays often abandon nests after predation events, leading to decreased reproductive success.
From 1981 to 2018, the average winter temperature at the Archbold Biological Station near Lake Placid rose by 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit. This temperature shift has caused nesting to move from mid-March to late February, prolonging exposure to predators.
Despite warmer winters initially enhancing reproduction, the overall reproductive success has declined. The scrub-jay population, once estimated at 100,000 to 150,000 before extensive housing development, has plummeted to approximately 5,000 to 6,000 individuals, primarily in the Ocala National Forest.
As a federally protected species under the Endangered Species Act, the scrub-jay is recognized for its remarkable spatial memory and social structures. However, climate change poses a significant threat to conservation efforts. Fitzpatrick emphasized the challenges even in permanently protected areas, stating that the scrub-jay's survival prospects are increasingly uncertain.