Elon Musk's robotaxi promise, dating back to 2016, faces a crucial test with the Austin pilot program starting June 12th. The initial rollout involves Model Y vehicles with Full Self-Driving (FSD), monitored by human drivers.
While investors once envisioned a "trillion-dollar market cap," Waymo already offers fully autonomous services, accumulating numerous rides weekly. Tesla relies on vision-based software, while competitors use lidar and radar. Tesla's fleet is at Level 2 – driver-assist – and the Austin fleet is expected to have safety drivers or strict remote monitoring.
Waymo's fully self-driving cars operate in several cities, handling complex urban driving without drivers at scale. Tesla's system requires constant monitoring. Federal investigations have linked Tesla's systems to accidents. Former Waymo CEO John Krafcik states Tesla lags behind Waymo.
The Austin launch appears more about optics, given cooling sales and increased scrutiny. Tesla has requested confidentiality from the city. If successful, the pilot program could provide proof of concept for Musk. Analysts like Dan Ives of Wedbush maintain their positive ratings, betting on Tesla's AI future, estimating AI and autonomous vehicles are worth at least a trillion dollars for Tesla alone.
However, serious skeptics remain. The Austin launch is critical to assess Tesla's technology, regulatory acceptance, and commercial viability. With Musk, expectations are high.