Bilateral trade between Russia and China experienced a notable downturn in the first half of 2025, with total trade volume falling by 9.1% year-on-year to $106.48 billion, according to Chinese customs data. This contraction marks a significant shift from the robust growth observed in previous years, reflecting the complex interplay of international sanctions, evolving economic policies, and changing global trade patterns.
The decline is evident in both directions of trade. Chinese exports to Russia decreased by 8.4%, while imports from Russia saw a larger drop of 9.6%. A primary driver for this trend is the impact of new U.S. sanctions targeting Russian maritime exports, which have led to a substantial reduction in Chinese oil imports from Russia. Volumes of these imports fell by 11%, and their value decreased by 24%. Lower global oil prices have also contributed to diminishing China's purchasing power for these commodities.
On the Russian side, protectionist measures have directly affected Chinese exports. An increase in recycling fees for imported vehicles, with some fees rising by up to 85%, contributed to a significant 61% decrease in Chinese car exports to Russia during the same period. This policy shift is part of Russia's strategy to bolster its domestic automotive industry, altering the market landscape for Chinese manufacturers.
Despite these challenges, both Russia and China are actively pursuing strategies to strengthen their economic ties. Efforts are underway to explore alternative trade mechanisms, such as barter deals, to navigate transaction complexities arising from sanctions. This strategic pivot underscores a mutual commitment to maintaining economic interdependence within a challenging geopolitical environment.
The slowdown in Russia-China trade growth was already apparent in 2024, when trade increased by only 1.9% compared to a substantial 26% surge in 2023. The first-half 2025 figures indicate a recalibration of their economic relationship. While China remains a crucial partner for Russia, particularly following Western sanctions imposed after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the current data points to a period of adjustment and strategic adaptation for both economies.