The USDA forecasts challenges for US wheat exports in the 2024/25 marketing year. Despite record global wheat production, ending stocks remain relatively low. Reduced global import demand and concerns over winter wheat conditions are key factors impacting the US wheat market.
The forecast for US wheat exports has been lowered to 820 million bushels due to slower sales of Hard Red Spring and Hard Red Winter wheat. US exporters face strong competition from other major wheat-exporting countries, even with production cuts in Russia and the EU. Global wheat trade for 2024/25 has been reduced to 203.5 million tons, with the largest export reductions expected in Australia and Russia. China's imports are projected to reach a six-year low.
Winter wheat conditions are a concern, with approximately 48% rated good to excellent as of April 2025. Drought conditions particularly affect Hard Red Winter wheat regions, with Nebraska and South Dakota experiencing significant declines in crop conditions. Global wheat consumption has also been reduced, primarily in India and China, due to smaller government stock movements and reduced import projections. Despite record production, global wheat ending stocks remain tight.