President Donald Trump has instructed the Department of Commerce to begin the process of establishing a new population census that will specifically exclude undocumented immigrants from the official count. This directive aims to reshape the distribution of congressional representation and the allocation of federal resources across the nation. In a statement released via the Truth Social platform, President Trump articulated that the census should be grounded in "modern day facts and figures," and incorporate data derived from the 2024 presidential elections. He emphatically stated that individuals residing in the country unlawfully "WILL NOT BE COUNTED IN THE CENSUS."
Traditionally, the U.S. census has encompassed all residents, irrespective of their immigration status, a practice vital for determining congressional apportionment and the equitable distribution of federal funds. This established methodology ensures that states with significant immigrant populations, such as California, Texas, and New York, are accurately represented. The exclusion of undocumented immigrants could therefore have a substantial impact on these states, potentially altering their political influence and the flow of federal resources. This initiative by President Trump emerges amidst ongoing discussions regarding electoral redistricting, particularly in Texas, where proposed new electoral maps could significantly benefit Republicans in upcoming elections. Democrats in Texas have voiced strong opposition to these changes, with some lawmakers undertaking measures to prevent votes on the matter.
Legal scholars suggest that excluding undocumented immigrants from the census may encounter significant constitutional challenges. The U.S. Constitution mandates the count of "all persons in each state" for apportionment purposes. Historically, attempts to alter census methodology, such as the inclusion of a citizenship question, have faced legal hurdles, with the Supreme Court blocking such efforts in the past due to concerns about legality and pretext. Furthermore, President Trump's directive arrives during a period of notable demographic shifts. According to the Migration Policy Institute, the immigrant population in the U.S. saw an increase of 1.6 million people between 2022 and 2023, with a significant portion being Latin Americans. In 2023, the U.S. was home to 47.8 million migrants, with a substantial majority being in the country legally.
The U.S. Census Bureau has historically counted all residents, including unauthorized immigrants, as part of the resident population for census purposes. The implications of altering census methodology and excluding undocumented immigrants are profound, sparking intense debate about the legality of the measure and its potential political and social ramifications. Historically, excluding undocumented residents from census data used for apportionment has had a minimal impact on party control of the House or presidential election outcomes, with studies suggesting no more than two House seats and three Electoral College votes shifting between parties since 1980. However, states like California and Texas could see a reduction in congressional seats if undocumented immigrants are excluded. The Census Bureau has indicated that planning for the 2030 census began in 2019, highlighting the extensive lead time required for such a massive undertaking. The directive to initiate a new census, particularly one with altered parameters, raises questions about feasibility and adherence to established legal and procedural frameworks governing the decennial count.