A significant trade agreement finalized in July 2025 between the European Union and the United States imposes a 15% tariff on most EU exports entering the U.S. This measure aims to preempt a trade war and foster business stability across the Atlantic. While the broader economic implications are still unfolding, Bulgaria's economy is expected to experience a modest impact, with its robust services sector poised to continue as a key economic driver.
The new trade framework introduces a 15% tariff on a wide array of EU exports, including automobiles, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals. This development follows weeks of negotiations, with both the EU and the U.S. presenting the agreement as a means to avoid escalating trade tensions. The deal, however, has drawn criticism from some European leaders who express concerns about its potential to hinder competitiveness. For Bulgaria, the direct impact of these tariffs is anticipated to be limited, given that trade with the U.S. constitutes a relatively small portion of its overall foreign trade. In 2023, Bulgaria's total exports amounted to BGN 86.9 billion, a 6.5% decrease from the previous year. Exports to the U.S. in 2023 generated approximately EUR 830 million in added value, representing about 1% of Bulgaria's total economic added value for that year. The services sector, however, has demonstrated considerable strength, contributing EUR 1.94 billion in added value from exports to the U.S. in 2023, which constituted 2.3% of Bulgaria's total added value. This highlights the sector's crucial role in the national economy, especially as it continues to grow, with a 4.2% year-on-year increase in June 2024, outperforming the EU average. Experts from the Institute for Market Economics (IME) have analyzed the situation, noting that while goods exports to the U.S. are significant, their overall contribution to Bulgaria's economy remains modest. The government is reportedly exploring strategies for market diversification to mitigate potential risks and capitalize on new opportunities. This proactive approach is essential for navigating the evolving global trade landscape. Historically, certain Bulgarian export sectors, such as automobiles, have faced fluctuating tariff conditions, underscoring the dynamic nature of international trade agreements. The current agreement, while introducing new tariff structures, also aims to provide a degree of predictability. The broader economic sentiment suggests that while specific sectors might face adjustments, the overall resilience of the Bulgarian economy, particularly its services sector, provides a stable foundation for future growth and adaptation. The nation's integration into the EU single market further bolsters its capacity to navigate these international trade dynamics.