The Czech Republic's parliamentary elections, held on October 20-21, 2025, have seen a significant victory for the right-wing populist ANO party, led by Andrej Babiš. Preliminary results indicate ANO secured approximately 35.5% of the vote, a substantial lead over the center-right Spolu coalition, headed by Prime Minister Petr Fiala, which garnered around 22.4%. The far-right Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) party is projected to achieve about 12% of the vote.
This electoral outcome has sparked concerns regarding the future of the Czech Republic's strong support for Ukraine, particularly its military aid. Andrej Babiš, a billionaire and former Prime Minister, has been a vocal critic of the current government's extensive military assistance to Kyiv. He has previously described the ongoing arms initiative as "rotten" and vowed to halt it, citing "unjustified price increases." This stance contrasts sharply with Prime Minister Fiala's administration, which has been a steadfast ally to Ukraine since Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022. The Czech Republic was among the first nations to provide military aid, including tanks and artillery, and has played a key role in coordinating broader European support.
The Czech government's arms initiative has been supplying artillery ammunition to Ukraine. Babiš's pledge to halt this program has raised alarms among Ukraine's allies. Analysts suggest that while significant policy shifts may require substantial parliamentary backing and could face internal resistance, the election results introduce considerable uncertainty. The SPD party, known for its online presence and accusations of spreading pro-Russian propaganda, further complicates the geopolitical implications.
The Czech Republic has historically been a strong supporter of Ukraine, donating arms and contributing to initiatives for artillery shells. In the first year of the invasion, Czechia delivered 89 tanks, 226 combat and armored vehicles, and 38 howitzers, with a significant portion coming from Czech defense companies. Citizen-led crowdfunding efforts have also raised substantial funds for military aid. The potential shift in Czech foreign policy under an ANO-led government could impact regional security and the broader European stance towards the conflict in Ukraine. Babiš's alignment with leaders like Hungary's Viktor Orbán and Slovakia's Robert Fico, who have adopted more reserved positions on aid to Ukraine, is a point of concern for many observers.
The election outcome is seen as a critical juncture, potentially influencing the flow of crucial ammunition and the geopolitical landscape. While the current government has championed strong support for Ukraine, the electoral victory of ANO signals a potential recalibration of foreign policy priorities. The coming period will be crucial in determining whether the Czech Republic maintains its role as a key supporter of Ukraine or pivots towards a more reserved or neutral position on the international stage.
In the first year of the invasion, the total market value of direct aid provided by Czechia to Ukraine was approximately 10 billion Czech crowns, with an additional 30 billion Czech crowns in export licenses for military equipment and ammunition. Citizens also raised 1.5 billion Czech crowns through crowdfunding for weapons such as RM-70 Vampire rocket launchers and Viktor systems. Overall, Czechia supplied Ukraine with over a million artillery shells and large-caliber ammunition, as well as missiles and anti-tank grenades, totaling 40 billion Czech crowns.
While European countries generally maintain a high level of support for Ukraine, with an average of 65.2% of EU citizens supporting military aid according to public opinion polls, political shifts in individual countries can create uncertainty.