Russian President Vladimir Putin has outlined specific conditions for a potential peace agreement with Ukraine, centering on significant territorial concessions. These demands include Ukraine ceding full control over the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Should these terms be met, Putin has indicated a readiness to freeze military actions along the front lines and halt offensives in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. Previously, the Kremlin had insisted on the transfer of these territories within their administrative borders, despite controlling only a portion of them. The specifics of whether Putin would concede any territory, such as the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant—Europe's largest, which previously supplied about 20% of Ukraine's electricity—remain unclear. Additionally, Ukraine would need to renounce all claims to Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014.
The US administration is reportedly working to secure support for such an agreement from Ukraine and its European allies, though this is far from guaranteed. The understanding is that agreement on territorial issues would pave the way for peace, followed by technical negotiations for a final accord. However, uncertainty persists regarding Putin's willingness to engage in a trilateral meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, a meeting proposed by former US President Donald Trump. Many within the US administration harbor doubts about Putin's genuine desire to end the conflict, suspecting he seeks a peace deal that aligns with his initial objectives in Ukraine. These doubts are echoed by Ukrainian officials, such as Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation under the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, who has dismissed media reports of alleged "agreements" or "plans" between the US and Russia concerning the conflict as fabrications. Kovalenko emphasized that the process is far more complex and that no media outlet possesses definitive plans.
Ukraine's constitutional and legal framework strictly prohibits territorial concessions. Ukrainian lawmakers have stated that any such agreement would violate the country's constitution and international law, setting a dangerous precedent that could undermine global security. The historical context of the Donbas region, with its complex ethnic and political landscape, further complicates any potential resolution. The ongoing conflict, which began in 2014 with Russia's annexation of Crimea, has resulted in significant loss of life and displacement. Amidst these diplomatic maneuvers, the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the largest in Europe, remains a critical point of concern. Its capture by Russian forces in March 2022 and subsequent control by Rosatom highlight the broader strategic implications of the conflict. The plant's pre-war contribution of over 20% to Ukraine's electricity generation underscores its vital importance to the nation's infrastructure. The international community's stance, particularly regarding the legality of territorial changes, remains a significant factor. Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its subsequent claims over other Ukrainian oblasts have been widely condemned and deemed illegal under international law. The prospect of any territorial concessions by Ukraine is viewed with deep skepticism, as it could be seen as rewarding aggression and emboldening future conflicts.