Joint military exercises between Russia and Belarus, codenamed Zapad-2025, commenced on September 12, 2025, and are set to conclude on September 16, 2025. These drills, conducted across training ranges in both Belarus and Russia, as well as in the Baltic and Barents Seas, aim to test the Union State's readiness to counter enemy incursions and secure its borders.
The Zapad-2025 exercises have amplified existing regional tensions, prompting a robust response from NATO and its member states. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk characterized the Zapad-2025 exercises as "very aggressive" and noted their proximity to the Polish border, leading Poland to close all its border crossings with Belarus for national security reasons. Similarly, Lithuania has placed its national security mechanisms on high alert and reinforced its border with additional troops. The UK Defense Secretary John Healey reiterated the United Kingdom's commitment to supporting NATO's defensive posture in light of Russia's actions. Neighboring countries view the drills with significant concern, with Poland's Interior Minister Marcin Kierwiński stating that Zapad-2025 is directly aimed at Poland and the European Union.
The scale of Zapad-2025 appears to be reduced compared to its predecessor, Zapad-2021, which involved approximately 200,000 troops. Current estimates suggest participation in Zapad-2025 involves around 7,000 to 8,000 personnel, though some NATO intelligence estimates suggest up to 13,000 troops could be involved. Despite the reduced numbers, analysts caution that the exercises may serve as a cover for military preparations or test NATO's response capabilities.
The drills are also notable for including training related to the potential use of nuclear weapons and practice with Russia's nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile system, which is slated for delivery to Belarus.
In parallel with the Zapad-2025 exercises, NATO and its allies have initiated their own large-scale drills. Poland's "Iron Defender-25" exercises, involving approximately 30,000 servicemen from Poland and allied nations, are designed to demonstrate the alliance's strength and readiness. Other NATO counter-exercises include Germany's "Great Eagle 25," the Baltic naval exercise "North Coast," and the U.S.-led "Iron Fist." These concurrent NATO drills underscore the heightened state of alert and the alliance's commitment to collective defense in response to perceived Russian military activities.
The Zapad-2025 exercises are occurring in the context of recent heightened tensions, including a significant Russian drone incursion into Polish airspace on September 10, 2025. Poland shot down the drones with NATO assistance, and the incident prompted Poland to invoke Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty, leading to emergency consultations within NATO. This event has been described by Polish officials as an unprecedented act of aggression and a turning point, bringing the region closer to open conflict than at any time since World War II. The exercises, therefore, serve as a focal point for ongoing geopolitical dynamics in Eastern Europe, highlighting the intricate interplay between military posturing and diplomatic engagement.