Leaked documents analyzed by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) suggest a significant increase in military cooperation between Russia and China. These documents indicate potential support for Beijing's capabilities in a future airborne invasion of Taiwan. The trove of approximately 800 pages, reportedly obtained by the hacktivist group Black Moon, details agreements for Russia to supply China with advanced parachute systems and amphibious assault vehicles, alongside crucial training in command and control procedures.
Key to the agreement are advanced high-altitude parachute systems, including the 'Dalnolyot' system, which permits the airdrop of up to 190 kilograms from extreme altitudes. China has requested testing for drops from 8,000 meters, enabling glides of up to 80 kilometers, a capability that could facilitate unnoticed infiltration by special forces. This technology transfer is particularly significant as it could accelerate China's airborne program by an estimated 10 to 15 years, given the relative youth of China's airborne landing doctrine.
The agreement also includes the provision of 37 light amphibious assault vehicles, 11 amphibious anti-tank self-propelled guns, and 11 airborne armored personnel carriers, with a total cost exceeding $210 million. While the leaked documents do not explicitly mention Taiwan, RUSI analysts interpret the equipment and training as directly enhancing China's capacity for a potential invasion. The transfer of Russian combat experience in airborne operations, an area where China has less practical experience, is considered by analysts to be of immense value.
Analysts suggest Russia's motivations for this deal are multifaceted. Russia aims to develop its role as a military supplier to China, generating funds to support its ongoing conflict in Ukraine. There is also a strategic consideration that Moscow may seek to draw Beijing into a conflict with Washington over Taiwan, potentially diverting U.S. attention from the war in Ukraine. The specific meeting detailed in the documents occurred on March 8, 2024, with Russia agreeing to provide system performance details by the end of 2024.
The broader context includes China's stated goal of transforming its armed forces into a "world-class" military by 2050. High-ranking U.S. officials have suggested President Xi Jinping has directed the military to be prepared for a possible Taiwan invasion by 2027. While the documents do not confirm an immediate invasion plan, they indicate Russia is equipping and training China with advanced capabilities that could significantly alter the strategic landscape in the Indo-Pacific region. The lack of immediate comment from the involved governments underscores the sensitive nature of these revelations.