Lebanon's government has set a strategic objective to disarm Hezbollah by the end of 2025, a significant move influenced by considerable international pressure, particularly from the United States and Israel. This initiative aims to establish the Lebanese state's exclusive authority over all weaponry within the nation.
The Lebanese cabinet officially endorsed the core objectives of a U.S.-backed proposal on August 7, 2025. This endorsement tasks the Lebanese army with formulating a comprehensive implementation plan by the end of August, with the ultimate aim of establishing state control over all arms by the close of 2025. The U.S. proposal, presented by envoy Tom Barrack, outlines a multi-phase strategy that includes a government decree within 15 days to commit to disarmament, followed by implementation within 60 days. It also calls for phased Israeli withdrawals from five strategic positions in southern Lebanon and the organization of an international economic conference to support reconstruction efforts. Key objectives also encompass the cessation of armed presence by all non-state factions, including Hezbollah, throughout Lebanon, the reinforcement of legitimate state institutions, and the consolidation of state authority over decisions concerning war and peace.
Hezbollah has strongly rejected this initiative, with its ministers and allied Shi'ite representatives staging walkouts from cabinet sessions in protest. The group has labeled the government's decision a "grave sin" and declared its intention to "treat the decision as if it does not exist." Hezbollah maintains that disarmament is conditional upon Israel's complete withdrawal from occupied territories and a cessation of airstrikes against Lebanon. The organization has also expressed a willingness to engage in national dialogue regarding security and reconstruction, contingent upon the end of Israeli aggression.
The unfolding situation has exacerbated internal tensions within Lebanon, raising concerns about potential unrest and deepening sectarian divisions. The Lebanese Army has issued warnings against actions that could compromise national security and civil peace. Regionally, the implications are profound, as the U.S. and its allies seek to diminish Iran's influence by neutralizing Hezbollah, considered Tehran's most significant proxy in the region. The successful implementation of this plan remains uncertain, given Hezbollah's entrenched position and the complexities of Lebanon's political landscape. The International Crisis Group has cautioned that a forceful approach to disarming Hezbollah is unlikely to be effective, citing the group's refusal to yield as stemming from a lack of trust in the state's ability to ensure national security. Compounding these challenges are ongoing Israeli violations of the ceasefire, which further complicate efforts to stabilize the region and execute any disarmament strategy. Lebanon's economic recovery is also closely tied to these geopolitical developments, with international financial institutions demanding reforms as part of broader stabilization initiatives.