The global satellite communications industry is undergoing a significant structural shift, marked by the clear ascendancy of data services over traditional video offerings. This fundamental recalibration is detailed in Novaspace's thirty-second annual report on the Satellite Connectivity and Video Market. The analysis forecasts that data applications will surpass video services in terms of revenue share by 2033. This pivot is quantified by data's projected growth from a 21% market slice in 2024 to a commanding 55% share by 2034.
This sweeping transition is directly catalyzed by the aggressive deployment of Non-Geostationary Orbit (NGSO) satellite constellations, which are simultaneously lowering capacity costs and stimulating unprecedented demand across data-reliant segments. The sheer volume of capacity being introduced is substantial: total available supply multiplied by three and a half times between 2023 and 2025, now reaching 105 Terabits per second (Tbps). NGSO systems, overwhelmingly led by Starlink, are responsible for furnishing 95% of this massive bandwidth influx.
The rise of NGSO technology is creating significant pressure on the established order. The traditional Geostationary Orbit (GEO) segment is experiencing a contraction in new orders, forcing incumbent operators to pivot toward developing smaller, more agile satellites for regional service delivery. For these GEO providers, integrating NGSO capabilities has become a strategic imperative for maintaining market relevance.
Nowhere is this transformation more evident than in the maritime sector, where NGSO solutions, including those from Starlink, are projected to capture an overwhelming 97% of the market share by 2034. This shift is expected to fuel a sevenfold surge in bandwidth requirements for sea-based operations, escalating from 286 Gigabits per second (Gbps) in 2024 to an estimated 2 Terabits per second (Tbps) over the next decade. Furthermore, the burgeoning direct-to-device satellite connectivity market is charting an ambitious course, expected to approach a valuation near $15 billion by 2033, supported by technological maturation and an anticipated user base exceeding 425 million individuals accessing services monthly by that year.
Underpinning these changes, the foundational economics of satellite operations are being reshaped by the lower cost per bit enabled by large LEO constellations. The regulatory environment is also adapting; for instance, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) recently approved new rules aimed at streamlining the deployment of satellite gateway earth stations to facilitate this high-speed data infrastructure. The entire ecosystem is aligning with this data-centric future, signaling robust overall expansion as participants actively integrate NGSO capacity.