New research published on August 13, 2025, in *Science Advances* provides strong evidence that extended and recurring droughts were major factors in the decline of the Maya civilization on the Yucatán Peninsula. Scientists from the University of Cambridge analyzed the chemical composition of stalagmites from the Tzabnah cave, enabling a precise reconstruction of monthly rainfall patterns from 871 to 1021 AD. This period aligns with the abandonment of many southern Maya cities.
The study identified eight distinct drought events during the crucial rainy seasons, each lasting at least three years. One of these droughts was particularly severe, extending for 13 years starting in 929 AD. Such extreme climatic conditions would have severely impacted the Maya's agricultural systems, a foundation of their society, likely leading to significant political and social instability. These findings build upon earlier research from 2014 that also suggested a link between reduced rainfall between 800 and 1100 AD and the Maya's gradual decline. However, this latest study offers higher-resolution climate data, providing a more detailed understanding of the direct impact of these droughts. Historians and archaeologists have long debated the causes of the Maya collapse, considering factors like warfare, shifting trade routes, disease, and environmental degradation. This research highlights the profound influence of climatic factors, particularly drought, on the stability and eventual downfall of complex societies. The ability to analyze stalagmites with such precision, capturing seasonal rainfall variations, offers a unique historical perspective, allowing for a more direct comparison between climate records and archaeological evidence of societal stress. While the Maya developed sophisticated water management systems, the severity and duration of these droughts would have presented an immense challenge. The impact varied across Maya centers; some, like Chichén Itzá, with extensive trade networks, may have been more resilient initially. Nevertheless, the consistent pattern of severe drought across the region points to a critical environmental pressure that likely exacerbated existing societal vulnerabilities. The cessation of monument construction and date inscriptions at major sites like Chichén Itzá during these periods of climatic stress further supports the link between environmental hardship and societal disruption. This research underscores the crucial role of climate in shaping the trajectory of ancient civilizations and offers valuable lessons on societal resilience and fragility in the face of environmental change.