UMass Amherst Physicists Predict High Probability of Black Hole Explosion in Next Decade

Edited by: Uliana S.

Physicists at UMass Amherst have proposed a new theory suggesting a 90% probability that astronomers will observe a black hole explosion within the next ten years. This prediction challenges the long-held belief that such cosmic events occur only once every 100,000 years, with the new research indicating they could be observable as frequently as once per decade. The findings were published in Physical Review Letters on September 12, 2025.

The theoretical framework builds upon Stephen Hawking's 1974 theory of Hawking radiation, which posits that black holes emit particles due to quantum effects, gradually losing mass and eventually evaporating in a supernova-like explosion. The UMass Amherst team's model introduces the concept that primordial black holes (PBHs), formed shortly after the Big Bang, may possess a slight electric charge due to a hypothetical "dark electron." This charge could stabilize PBHs, delaying their evaporation and making their final explosive moments observable in the near future.

Astrophysicist Joaquim Iguaz Juan from UMass Amherst stated that such an event would offer a definitive record of all fundamental particles in the universe, including known particles and hypothetical dark matter candidates. This would significantly advance physics and potentially rewrite the history of the universe. The researchers believe that current gamma-ray observatories, such as HAWC and LHAASO, possess the necessary sensitivity to detect these anticipated explosions.

If this prediction is accurate, the observation would serve as the first direct evidence of Hawking radiation and confirm the existence of PBHs. The study's novel approach, which re-evaluates assumptions about the electrical charge of black holes, suggests that these events, once considered exceedingly rare, could be a recurring phenomenon observable within our current cosmic timeframe.

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