Cyclone Shakti has intensified into a severe cyclonic storm, leading to widespread rainfall alerts across numerous Indian states. Forecasts indicate heavy to extremely heavy downpours are expected from October 3rd to October 7th, 2025, affecting regions from northern to southern India. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is closely monitoring the storm's path and intensity.
The most intense rainfall is anticipated in North Bihar, East Uttar Pradesh, and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim. Some areas within these regions could experience exceptionally heavy conditions, prompting red warnings for several districts in West Bengal due to a high risk of severe weather. This activity occurs while southwest monsoon conditions remain active in north Bihar and eastern Uttar Pradesh, which have already recorded extremely heavy rainfall.
Further south, Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Tamil Nadu are also under weather advisories. A cyclonic circulation is expected to bring moderate to heavy rainfall to many districts, including major cities like Mumbai and Chennai. Although initial warnings suggested a significant impact on Maharashtra's coast, including Mumbai, Thane, Raigad, and Palghar, updated IMD assessments indicate the cyclone poses a minimal threat to the coastline. Light to moderate rainfall is now predicted for these areas between October 6 and 8, with the storm expected to weaken.
Cyclone Shakti originated over the east-central Arabian Sea, and its trajectory has been under close observation. While the west coast of India is historically less susceptible to cyclones than the east coast, recent years have seen an increase in severe cyclones forming in the Arabian Sea, a trend linked to rising ocean temperatures. The IMD categorizes cyclones by wind speed, with Cyclone Shakti classified as a “Severe Cyclonic Storm.”
India has implemented several initiatives to bolster disaster preparedness and cyclone resilience, including the National Cyclone Risk Mitigation Project (NCRMP) and the Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZMP). These programs aim to enhance early warning systems, improve infrastructure, and foster sustainable coastal development. The IMD also employs an Impact-Based Cyclone Warning System, which incorporates local factors for more precise warnings and loss reduction.
While cyclones can cause destructive winds and heavy rainfall, leading to flooding and other hazards, they also play a role in the nation's weather systems. Tropical cyclones can influence the monsoon season, potentially accelerating its onset and delivering vital moisture. Conversely, they can also alter wind patterns, introducing uncertainty. The influence of climate change on sea surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions is increasingly affecting the frequency and intensity of cyclones in the Indian Ocean.