A vital oceanic current system, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), is approaching a critical tipping point, potentially triggering significant global climate disruptions before the century's end. This immense conveyor belt of ocean currents plays a crucial role in regulating weather patterns worldwide by transporting warm tropical waters northward.
New research, published on August 24, 2025, in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, utilized 25 climate models to assess the stability of the AMOC. A newly identified indicator, surface buoyancy flux, has shown an increase since 2020, signaling a weakening of this essential current. The study projects a potential collapse as early as 2055 under high-emission scenarios, with moderate emissions potentially leading to collapse by 2063.
Professor Stefan Rahmstorf, a leading oceanographer, has expressed grave concern, noting that the risk of the AMOC tipping point is being underestimated. He stated that even a 10% chance of collapse is unacceptable. European Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra has characterized these findings as a "serious climate wake-up call," emphasizing the urgent need for emission reductions.
The ramifications of an AMOC collapse could be severe and far-reaching. Europe may experience significantly colder temperatures and an increase in storms, with agricultural losses potentially reaching 30%. Along North America's eastern coast, higher sea levels are anticipated due to water redistribution. Disruptions to monsoon patterns in Asia and Africa are also a distinct possibility.
While some studies suggest the AMOC has remained stable over the past six decades, others, like the recent research from Utrecht University, indicate a more precarious situation. This new study's findings, corroborated by historical data analysis, highlight the critical role of surface buoyancy flux as an indicator of AMOC stability. The research underscores that even under moderate emissions scenarios, the AMOC could begin to collapse, with projections suggesting a tipping point could be reached within the next few decades. The scientific community is urging immediate and decisive action to curb greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate the risks associated with a weakening AMOC.