A groundbreaking study published on October 3, 2025, in *Nature Geoscience* reveals that Antarctica is undergoing a transformation scientists are calling 'Greenlandization.' The study's title is "The Greenlandization of Antarctica." Researchers from the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), in collaboration with the Technical University of Denmark and the University of Leeds, have documented changes in Antarctica that mirror those observed in Greenland two to three decades ago, including accelerated ice shelf collapse and glacier melt.
Ruth Mottram, a climatologist at DMI, stated that satellite observations indicate Antarctica is gradually shifting to resemble Greenland's state from twenty to thirty years prior, characterized by increased ice shelf collapse and accelerated glacier melt. She noted that numerous research results and satellite observation data support this conclusion. This new research highlights a worrying shift, as Antarctica was previously considered more stable than the Arctic. Satellite data now shows shrinking ice shelves, glaciers flowing more rapidly to the sea, and diminishing sea ice. These developments are significant because the southern ice masses hold immense potential for global sea-level rise. Since the 1990s, Antarctica has contributed approximately seven millimeters to global sea levels. While Greenland's ice melt has been a prominent symbol of climate change, Antarctica's impact on sea levels is more severe, particularly for low-lying nations like Denmark. A cubic meter of ice melted in Antarctica causes a greater sea-level rise in certain latitudes, including those affecting Denmark, compared to the same volume from Greenland. The potential collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet alone could lead to a sea-level rise of over 16 feet (approximately 4.8 meters), posing a dramatic threat to Denmark's coasts and infrastructure.
These findings align with discussions from a conference organized by the Royal Society in London on September 29-30, 2025, titled "Global Impacts of Climate Extremes in Polar Regions: Is Antarctica Reaching a Tipping Point?" Scientists at the event warned of much faster changes occurring in Antarctica since 2016 and their global ramifications. Professor Michael Meredith, an oceanographer, expressed profound concern, noting that "Antarctica is evolving faster than we would have imagined." He emphasized the critical need for immediate action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and bolster resilience to prevent crossing dangerous thresholds. The Royal Society meeting highlighted that past warm periods have triggered rapid Antarctic ice loss and multi-meter sea level rise within centuries, or even decades, a stark warning for the future.
The accelerated changes in Antarctica echo patterns previously observed in Greenland, underscoring the imperative to curb emissions and global warming. In the past two years, Antarctica has seen unprecedented extreme phenomena linked to climate change, including exceptionally low winter sea ice and accelerated ice melt. For instance, Antarctica's winter sea ice in 2025 reached its third-lowest level in nearly half a century, a stark indicator of the planet's warming trajectory. This trend, significantly different from patterns before 2016, is attributed to the mixing of warm global ocean currents with Antarctic waters. The implications of this shrinking sea ice are profound, as the loss of reflective ice surfaces allows darker ocean water to absorb more heat, accelerating warming and potentially destabilizing the ice sheet. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet, in particular, holds enough ice to raise global sea levels by over 16 feet, and scientists warn that this region may be nearing a critical tipping point. Furthermore, the melting of Antarctic ice sheets can release freshwater, which may affect ocean currents and lead to unpredictable changes in global climate systems.