The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its economic growth forecast for Latin America and the Caribbean, projecting a slowdown from 2.4% in 2024 to 2.0% in 2025. This revision, announced in April 2025, reflects concerns over the impact of tariffs and a significant economic downturn in Mexico.
According to the IMF's updated World Economic Outlook, the downgrade is largely attributed to Mexico's expected contraction of 0.3% in 2025, a sharp decline from the previously estimated 1.4% growth. The IMF cites the impact of U.S. tariffs, associated uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and tighter financing conditions as contributing factors to Mexico's economic woes.
While most countries in Latin America are expected to experience slower growth, Argentina stands out with an upward revision to its growth forecast, now projected at 5.5% for 2025. The IMF also noted that global growth is expected to reach 2.8% this year and 3% next year. The IMF has reduced its global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8% from 3.3% in January, citing the highest U.S. tariffs in a century.