U.S. stock index futures showed stability on Monday, August 11, 2025, as markets navigated a landscape shaped by ongoing trade policy discussions and anticipation of key economic indicators. Investors are closely monitoring developments in U.S.-China trade relations, with a critical deadline for potential new tariffs approaching on August 12. This backdrop has influenced market sentiment, particularly for technology firms. Semiconductor companies Nvidia and AMD experienced premarket declines, with Nvidia down 1% and AMD down 2%. This movement follows reports that both firms have agreed to remit 15% of their advanced chip sales revenue in China to the U.S. government, a condition for securing export licenses for sales in China. Analysts note this arrangement could impact profit margins and introduce policy risk as a direct cost of doing business. For Nvidia, this could mean recovering approximately $8 billion per quarter in revenue previously unavailable, while for AMD, it signifies a significant market access agreement.
Market participants are also keenly awaiting the U.S. consumer inflation report, with core CPI expected to rise by 0.3% in July. This data will be crucial in shaping expectations for potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts later in the year. Recent consumer surveys indicate a slight uptick in inflation expectations, with the median year-ahead expectation rising to 3.1% in July. The Federal Reserve has maintained a cautious stance, with some officials still projecting three interest rate cuts for 2025, contingent on inflation and labor market data. Last week, major U.S. stock indexes posted robust gains: the S&P 500 increased by 2.4%, the Nasdaq surged by 3.9%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.6%. However, the upcoming inflation data and the resolution of the U.S.-China trade situation remain key focal points for the current week. Adding to the geopolitical landscape, President Trump is scheduled to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on August 15, 2025, to discuss the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The U.S. has also imposed tariffs on India over its import of Russian oil, highlighting the interconnectedness of global trade and geopolitical strategies. In commodity markets, gold futures saw a significant drop of $88.50, settling at $3,402.80 an ounce.