Bitcoin Plunges to Six-Month Low Amid ETF Exodus and Macroeconomic Headwinds

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has demonstrated a significant decline, sinking below the $96,000 mark and reaching its lowest valuation point in the last six months. Specifically, the BTC/USD trading pair touched $92,955 on Sunday, a level not witnessed since May 1. This sharp mid-November drop coincided with a broad deterioration in investor confidence. This sentiment shift is clearly reflected in the Cryptocurrency Fear & Greed Index, which plummeted to 15, firmly placing the market in the “Extreme Fear” category. Consequently, the total capitalization of the crypto market has reverted to levels last observed in June.

This sustained price depreciation unfolded against a backdrop of global capital moving away from risk assets, a trend largely exacerbated by weakening expectations for a December interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve. According to data tracked by the CME Group Fedwatch tool, the probability of a rate reduction in December drastically fell from 93.7% just a month ago to a mere 43.6% at the time of this analysis. Furthermore, the resumption of U.S. government operations following a brief shutdown failed to provide any positive impetus, instead reinforcing the prevailing risk-off tone across financial markets.

Compounding the pressure was a substantial flight of institutional capital from spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). Over the first ten trading days of November, these products recorded a staggering net divestment totaling $3.1 billion. In a particularly acute session, a single-day outflow reached $870 million, marking the second-worst performance since the ETFs were officially launched on January 11, 2024. This consistent institutional selling signals profound bearishness among major financial entities.

On-chain analytics firm Santiment reported that the ratio of positive to negative comments regarding Bitcoin has reached its lowest point in the last month, confirming that pessimism now dominates the narrative landscape. Interestingly, Bitcoin’s social media dominance simultaneously surged to over 40%, highlighting the asset's central role in the current widespread market anxiety. This period of distress also spurred a notable shift in the behavior of long-term holders—those who have possessed BTC for more than six months—who began liquidating their positions. They sold over 815,000 BTC within the last 30 days, representing the highest selling volume recorded since January 2024.

Despite the pervasive atmosphere of “extreme fear,” some experts maintain a long-term optimistic outlook, grounding their forecasts in behavioral and on-chain indicators. Analysts frequently cite historical precedents where periods of intense negativity often precede significant market reversals. Technical analysts have also pointed to patterns such as a “descending wedge” formation on the Bitcoin chart, which traditionally forecasts positive price movement. Supporting this contrarian view, Bitcoin’s 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio recently dipped to -10% for the first time in eight months. This metric typically signals substantial losses for short-term traders, a condition that has historically corresponded with opportune buying zones.

The market currently presents a clear dichotomy: immediate fear, driven by adverse macroeconomic factors and institutional capital flight, clashes directly with contrarian forecasts rooted in long-term cycle analysis and technical signals. While Bitcoin has shed approximately 23% of its value since reaching its October peak of $126,173, this decline is still considered relatively minor by some market participants when compared to the asset’s more dramatic historical drawdowns.